The New Normal
The whole is greater than the sum of the parts.
Aristotle
Today, our days have become an endless cycle of carry, cook, clean, call, repeat…with a particular condition (besides pandemic) that unites us further — that of hands that are cracked and painful from a hand washing routine that would put Lady Macbeth to shame, as somebody put it.
Year 2020 will standout as one of the most challenging and painful times faced by humans in over more than a century that took the world by surprise (more like horror). It has brought about a seismic shift in our daily lives, turning what is “normal”completely on its head and creating what is now being called “The New Normal”.
The New Normal isn’t where you wait for the next boom…it is about the rest of your life, living in the shadow of that which can return and resurge…and learning to live with it.
To bring in some context…
In the years immediately after the end of World War I, a spate of books and articles addressed “the new normal” that was expected to emerge after that conflict. One of the earliest is from Henry Wise Wood, “Beware!” in National Electric Light Association Bulletin (December 1918):
To consider the problems before us we must divide our epoch into three periods, that of war, that of transition, that of the new normal, which undoubtedly will supersede the old.
Some contend that we should first envisage the new normal, and carve the measures of transition to suit its requirements. Others believe that we should cautiously feel our way through the period of transition, and arrive at what the new normal shall be by the road of experience.
The first would attempt reconstruction by synthetic process; the second would achieve it by natural growth. Who shall say that a new normal, artificially compounded at this distance from the future, will work? Who shall say that a new normal, patiently sought through trial and error, will not work?
Pondering on which of the above two routes is a more plausible outcome for what we are collectively facing, least we can be sure of at this stage is an altered way of life emerging from the depths of COVID19 crisis, where living under extended lockdowns, confined within the four walls of our homes, dealing with isolation, uncertainty and fear, working from home (or being furloughed for those in the West), keeping the little ones safe and engaged at home, connecting with family and friends digitally, distant learning(classrooms and workplaces would certainly seem like a relic in the past!), stepping out once in a couple of days for the bare necessities, armed with mask and gloves, only to traipse into empty streets and parks, will all become a norm. That Sun, wind and open spaces will become a luxury !
So what will this “New Normal” look like in future ?
Will “Business As Usual” undergo a change ?
Covid crisis has brought the biggest behemoths on their knees who are now scrambling both for cash and customers. In times to come, there is every possibility that we will see these businesses morph into a “Business As Is”, where organisations will be constituted of — a limited Physical setup (think of Foot Soldiers/Logistics/Supply Chain) on ground supported by a larger Virtual setup (Strategic / Leadership / Digital) actually working from home.
Businesses where KRAs and KPIs will be reset every quarter depending on the factors at play — climate change, epidemic, migration and displacement, new consumption pattern and so on. Permanent payroll employees will cease to exist. Employment will increasingly tend towards time-based contracts with seasonality to skillsets in demand.
Re-skilling and up-skilling will have to be actively pursued by those aspiring to play an active role in the available job market, with increasing competition from the likes of UAVs and Robots for specific roles.
How will it impact Household spends and lifestyle ?
Having survived through the current pandemic and gotten used to living with just the essentials, a majority of population across the planet will become habitually parsimonious. People will start to judiciously conclude the “non essentials” from their shopping baskets. Spends on health (vaccines, health checks, regular tests, insurance, supplements and specific food items), hygiene (hand washes, masks, sanitisers, gloves) and wellbeing (telemedicine, wellness apps) will be the new focus. Sourcing local produce and consuming home cooked meals will increase disproportionately. Disruption in supply chains could push many to turn to growing their own veggies.Eating out, mall visits, shopping plazas, movie outings to theatre, open air sports and music events, visits to beauty salons, gym workouts will all see demand drying up.
Rewear, up cycle, share, repair and repeat could be the new emerging trend in fashion, as far as clothes are concerned. Masks and Gloves might become the new fashion accessory.
OTT platforms will grow to occupy a respectable place, sitting up higher in the shopping lists within a more conservative/cautious home budgets. Data and tech spends on various home devices will see an uptick.
Carpooling and public transportation would be looked down with suspicion. This will impact commute preferences and costs. Travel and tourism will be postponed to safer times.
DIY life of caution will certainly change things for the lower middle class and the marginalised (maids, drivers, cooks, cleaners and the likes) who may be at the receiving end of this collateral damage once the current ordeal is over. This unorganised sector could experience lower demand and higher scrutiny. So, while on one hand this virus has been an equaliser of sorts with respect to nations rich and poor, it will prove to be highly divisive within the individual societies.
Extended exposure to multiple screens and long hours of online activities through the days will surely lead to an increased appreciation for life outdoors for everyone.
How will Education shape up post COVID19?
Schools when reopened, will most likely work in shifts at a half /third of their capacity, keeping with the social distancing norms. School canteens, morning assemblies, annual days, sports days will all have to be repurposed to factor in this aspect of social distancing. Testing will become an important safety feature at these educational institutes.Online classes will become a popular practice and hence Teaching as a profession might gain more traction.
As for all the expensive (and enviable) university education in US (UK and the likes of them) with an average fees of $75000+ per annum for a 4 year undergrad course, this crisis will prove to be a moment of truth. There will be an urgency to rethink their education models — for both students and student loans will prove hard to find.
Like OTT platforms for household entertainment, EdTech will thrive as an alternative to standard conventional education system run by states and who knows, Homeschooling could get fashionable !
Will this pandemic change the World order ?
It is fascinating to see the difference in delivery (in terms of urgency with which to handle the crisis) between what Andrew Cuomo, the governor of New York, has to say and what Donald Trump, the president of USA, generally says (or doesn’t). This crisis has seriously dented America’s credibility globally, with USA- the world’s greatest economy and military, looking every bit helpless and incompetent in the face of this virus. This also appears to be the case with other strong nations of the west like United Kingdom and France (with Germany being an exception). As country after country pursues “Nation First” approach to deal with COVID19, this virus may be the nail in the coffin of the idea of West.
In the midst of world-wide chaos, China is trying its best to clean its image of being a perpetrator to being an enabler by playing a “global donor” -supporting struggling nations with its offer of lessons learnt from an early exposure to the virus, sending medical teams of doctors, shipping medical equipment like PPE, masks and testing kits. The question whether China will gain from all this, still remains highly doubtful. What is certain however, at this stage, is that China will become a less attractive investment and tourist destination in this emerging new world order. This pandemic is also likely to speed up U.S.-China decoupling and result in supply chain reorientation away from China.
What will be interesting to watch will be how small and medium countries/territories who have been able to rise up to the occasion with testing and containment measures, such as Singapore, South Korea, Hong Kong and Taiwan could become a key element of the idea of “Multiplex World” of future (as proposed by Amitav Acharya, a professor at American University in Washington, DC), which stresses issue-oriented governance by multiple actors over traditional great powers status in defining the emerging world order. Only time will tell who those actors will be.
On an as-is basis, it is noteworthy how nations led by women leaders have faired in this fight with corona. Countries like Taiwan, New Zealand, Germany, Finland, Norway, Denmark and Iceland, have all been exemplary in their proactive approach to early testing, containment and clear, concise communication.
And then there are these to consider…
Alternate Workforce — Armed forces have played an active role in many countries to help test, curtail and contain the disease. Learning from this experience, an alternate “workforce of volunteers” — registered, trained and on standby to join in at a short notice, to tackle any emerging crisis in future, would be something to aspire for. Same will be the case with secondary workforce of retired medical staff that would be ready to join as necessary (the way NHS recalled its retired doctors).
Infrastructure — changes in demand would impact real estate for real. Businesses across will latch onto these savings on rentals and infrastructure costs to improve their bottomlines. Further, infrastructure projects like Smart Cities could wake up to a new requirement — that of planning for and factoring in Testing Centres and Quarantine Quarters with fastest transportation facilities available in the vicinity (as seen in France where more serious covid cases were efficiently transferred from red zones to safer/green zones via fast trains, helicopters and so on).
Finally the big question — what about Recovery ?
As per IMF, world is facing its worst downturn since the Great Depression as shuttered factories, quarantines and national lockdowns cause economic output to collapse. Global economy is currently projected to contract any where from 3% to 4.5% in 2020. As per the estimates, over the next two years, the pandemic could shave more than $9 trillion from GDP. It is believed that Euro-area economy alone will shrink by 7.5 percent, led by steep declines in Italy and Spain. As for the emerging markets, China’s economy will expand at a sluggish 1.2 % this year, down from 6.1% last year and India’s economy is expected to grow 1.9%, down from 4.2% in 2019 (estimates from IMF).
While investors remain hopeful of a V shaped recovery, that seems highly impossible, given that the countries which have dealt with the first wave of crisis deftly, could be hit by a second wave of corona (and a third after that) in the following months when the lockdown restrictions are relaxed. So recovery could look like a U or more realistically, it could follow a W….up, down, up and then tending flat with a repeat.
Only game changers in the above narrative will be an early Vaccine to prevent new waves of infection, widespread Testing at regular intervals to contain the infections and effective Treatment through easy access to speciality hospitals and a worldwide collaboration to continue the fight.
As we all evolve and learn some more with each passing day, living through and with this crisis, all we can strive for is to protect ourselves by protecting others to come out a winner together.
Meanwhile, wish you and yours well.
Stay Home , Stay Safe.
